Risk factors and indicators for engagement in violent extremism

Research on terrorism is increasingly empirical and a number of significant advancements have been made. One such evolution is the emergent understanding of risk factors and indicators for engagement in violent extremism. Beyond contributing to academic knowledge, this has important real-world implications. Notably, the development of terrorism risk assessment tools, as well as behavioural threat assessment in counterterrorism. This thesis makes a unique contribution to the literature in two key ways. First, there is a general consensus that no single, stable profile of a terrorist exists. Relying on profiles of static risk factors to inform judgements of risk and/or threat may therefore be problematic, particularly given the observed multi- and equi-finality. One way forward may be to identify configurations of risk factors and tie these to the theorised causal mechanisms they speak to. Second, there has been little attempt to measure the prevalence of potential risk factors for violent extremism in a general population, i.e. base rates. Establishing general population base rates will help develop more scientifically rigorous putative risk factors, increase transparency in the provision of evidence, minimise potential bias in decision-making, improve risk communication, and allow for risk assessments based on Bayesian principles. This thesis consists of four empirical chapters. First, I inductively disaggregate dynamic person-exposure patterns (PEPs) of risk factors in 125 cases of lone-actor terrorism. Further analysis articulates four configurations of individual-level susceptibilities which interact differentially with situational, and exposure factors. The PEP typology ties patterns of risk factors to theorised causal mechanisms specified by a previously designed Risk Analysis Framework (RAF). This may be more stable grounds for risk assessment however than relying on the presence or absence of single factors. However, with no knowledge of base rates, the relevance of seemingly pertinent risk factors remains unclear. However, how to develop base rates is of equal concern. Hence, second, I develop the Base Rate Survey and compare two survey questioning designs, direct questioning and the Unmatched Count Technique (UCT). Under the conditions described, direct questioning yields the most appropriate estimates. Third, I compare the base rates generated via direct questioning to those observed across a sample of lone-actor terrorists. Lone-actor terrorists demonstrated more propensity, situational, and exposure risk factors, suggesting these offenders may differ from the general population in measurable ways. Finally, moving beyond examining the prevalence rates of single factors, I collect a second sample in order to model the relations among these risk factors as a complex, dynamic system. To do so, the Base Rate Survey: UK is distributed to a representative sample of 1,500 participants from the UK. I introduce psychometric network modelling to terrorism studies which visualises the interactions among risk factors as a complex system via network graphs

Vulnerability to radicalisation in a general population: a psychometric network approach

A public health approach to countering the threat from extremism aims to manage vulnerability before behaviour escalates to require involvement from the criminal justice system. Fundamental to applying a public health approach is understanding how risk (and protective) factors can be modified, in other words, the functional roles of these factors. To unpack the functional roles of risk factors, a more dynamic approach to modelling the complex relationships between factors is needed. In the present study we surveyed a representative sample of the UK general population (n = 1500) where participants self-reported risk factors and indicators for vulnerability to radicalisation. Operationalising analytical guidance from a Risk Analysis Framework (RAF), we applied psychometric network modelling to visualise the relationships among risk factors relating to individual-level propensities, situational influences, and exposure to extremism-enabling environments. We present our results as a series of network graphs and discuss (a) how risk factors ‘cluster’ or ‘co-occur’, (b) the most influential risk factors which may be important for intervention and prevention, and (c) ‘risk pathways’ which suggest potential putative risk and/or protective factors. We present our findings as evidence for a public health approach to countering the threat from extremism

Police perceptions of problem-oriented policing and evidence-based policing: evidence from England and Wales

The history of policing is littered with reform programmes, which aim to improve effectiveness, efficiency and legitimacy. Problem-oriented policing (POP) and evidence-based policing (EBP) are two popular and enduring reform efforts, both of which have generated significant researcher and practitioner attention. There are important similarities between POP and EBP: both approaches provide a framework intended to improve the outcomes of policing. There are also key differences, however, in terms of their main objectives, standards of evidence and units of analysis. Despite both approaches being widely advocated and implemented, presently little is known about police practitioner understanding of the relationship between POP and EBP, both in principle and in practice. To address this gap, this paper draws on survey (n = 4,141) and interview (n = 86) data collected from 19 police forces in England and Wales in 2019 to explore police practitioners’ views on the relationship between POP and EBP, and the extent to which these two approaches inform contemporary police practices. Our findings indicate that respondents generally viewed the two approaches as complementary and important frameworks for orienting police work. However, respondents also drew attention to how the two approaches are not always connected organisationally nor in the minds of police personnel. In addition, challenges were identified in the application of both approaches in practice. Our results suggest that more needs to be done to maximise the potential of POP and EBP, both separately and synergistically. The article concludes by suggesting some ways in which this might be achieved

Systematic Review of Mental Health Problems and Violent Extremism

This systematic review assesses the impact of mental health problems upon attitudes, intentions and behaviours in the context of radicalisation and terrorism. We identified 25 studies that measured rates of mental health problems across 28 samples. The prevalence rates are heterogenous and range from 0% to 57%. If we pool the results of those samples (n = 19) purely focused upon confirmed diagnoses where sample sizes are known (n = 1705 subjects), the results suggest arate of 14.4% with aconfirmed diagnosis. Where studies relied upon wholly, or in some form, upon privileged access to police or judicial data, diagnoses occurred 16.96% of the time (n = 283 subjects). Where studies were purely focused upon open sources (n = 1089 subjects), diagnoses were present 9.82% of the time. We then explore (a) the types and rates of mental health disorders identified (b) comparison/control group studies (c) studies that explore causal roles of mental health problems and (d) other complex needs.This work was supported by Public Safety Canada [8000-18884], the Department of Home Affairs (Australia), and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No 758834)

Problem-oriented policing in England and Wales:barriers and facilitators

Evidence shows that the application of problem-oriented policing can be effective in reducing a wide range of crime and public safety issues, but that the approach is challenging to implement and sustain. This article examines police perceptions and experiences regarding organisational barriers to and facilitators of the implementation and delivery of problem-oriented policing. Drawing on surveys of (n = 4141) and interviews with (n = 86) police personnel from 19 police forces in England and Wales, we identify five key barriers and facilitators to problem-oriented policing: leadership and governance, capacity, organisational structures and infrastructure, partnership working and organisational culture. These factors provide important indicators for what police organisations need to do, or need to avoid, if they are to successfully embed and deliver problem-oriented policing. The article generates critical information about the processes that drive change in police organisations and offers recommendations for police managers who may wish to implement or develop problem-oriented policing. The paper also proposes a research agenda aimed at addressing evidence gaps in our understanding of the implementation and sustenance of problem-oriented policing

Forty years of problem-oriented policing: A review of progress in England and Wales

This article analyses and critically reflects on the position of problem-oriented policing within England and Wales. Problem-oriented policing is a framework for improving police effectiveness. Its adoption has consistently been shown to be associated with sizable reductions in a wide range of crimes and public safety issues. However, many studies also find that problem-oriented policing is difficult to embed and sustain within police organisations. This article draws on the experiences and perspectives of 86 informed stakeholders to critically examine the position and practice of problem-oriented policing 40 years after its original formulation by Herman Goldstein in 1979. We argue that despite evidence of renewed interest in problem-oriented policing, the approach is not habitually conducted within police organisations in England and Wales. Where it is conducted, the practice of problem-oriented policing is found to lack discipline, the processes tend not to be faithfully followed, and there are weaknesses at all stages of the process. Implications of the findings for future research and police practice are discussed